Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-04 0.083502 0.095282 0.108077 0.123001 0.139924 0.158512 0.180475
2026-01-11 0.065032 0.080207 0.097950 0.120206 0.147356 0.179383 0.220020
2026-01-18 0.052425 0.069476 0.090814 0.119428 0.156748 0.203729 0.267333
2026-01-25 0.040349 0.057297 0.079935 0.112294 0.157274 0.217503 0.304200
2026-02-01 0.030928 0.046948 0.069731 0.104358 0.155516 0.228166 0.339026
2026-02-08 0.024591 0.039795 0.062756 0.099759 0.157692 0.244682 0.384954
2026-02-15 0.019634 0.033797 0.056457 0.095087 0.159017 0.260254 0.432298
2026-02-22 0.016784 0.030632 0.054034 0.096103 0.169456 0.291555 0.509503
2026-03-01 0.013675 0.026428 0.049157 0.092183 0.171099 0.308948 0.566954
2026-03-08 0.011336 0.023146 0.045300 0.089359 0.174169 0.329270 0.632934
2026-03-15 0.009471 0.020390 0.041907 0.086777 0.177237 0.350085 0.703330
2026-03-22 0.008375 0.018958 0.040801 0.088433 0.188720 0.388368 0.813080
2026-03-29 0.007146 0.017035 0.038446 0.087330 0.194943 0.418367 0.913535
2026-04-05 0.006238 0.015634 0.036939 0.087785 0.204615 0.457148 1.039229
2026-04-12 0.005530 0.014548 0.035932 0.089192 0.216723 0.503256 1.189020
2026-04-19 0.004612 0.012742 0.032904 0.085328 0.216152 0.521677 1.280872
2026-04-26 0.003795 0.011004 0.029693 0.080381 0.212105 0.531598 1.355171
2026-05-03 0.003221 0.009784 0.027538 0.077678 0.213128 0.553744 1.462999
2026-05-10 0.002727 0.008670 0.025430 0.074674 0.212831 0.572689 1.566507
2026-05-17 0.002465 0.008179 0.024932 0.076007 0.224432 0.623869 1.762292
2026-05-24 0.002106 0.007300 0.023145 0.073294 0.224322 0.644419 1.880465
2026-05-31 0.001823 0.006594 0.021715 0.071347 0.226061 0.670349 2.018275
2026-06-07 0.001584 0.005972 0.020412 0.069515 0.227806 0.696663 2.162097